The futuro is always uncertain. But at some times, and now, is one such time, the range of possible near-future events is enormous. The major source of this great uncertainty is economic policy. There is uncertainty about the way in which international trade policy will evolve as protectionism is returning to the political agenda. There is uncertainty about exchange rete policy as competitive devaluation rears its head.
There is extraordinary uncertainty about monetary policy with the Fed having doubled the quantity of bank reserves and continuing to create more money in an attempt to stimulale a flagging economy. And there is uncertainty about fiscal policy as a trillion dollar deficit interacts with an aging populalion to create a national debt time bomb.
